Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

I still remember back in 2006, when the curve inverted ahead of the financial crisis. Hardly anyone outside of bankers, economists, hardcore investors and bond traders knew what it meant. But by 2008, ...

In my 50-plus years of running money, I’ve noticed that the biggest market moves come from factors that have gone unnoticed – and right now, there’s a doozy lurking under the table. Amid all the ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...